Risk Adjustment of ICD-10-CM Coded Potential Inpatient Complications Using Administrative Data.

OBJECTIVE: To risk-adjust the Potential Inpatient Complication (PIC) measure set and propose a method to identify large deviations between observed and expected PIC counts. DATA SOURCES: Acute inpatient stays from the Premier Healthcare Database from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2021. STUDY DESIGN: In 2014, the PIC list was developed to identify a broader set of potential complications that can occur as a result of care decisions. Risk adjustment for 111 PIC measures is performed across 3 age-based strata. Using patient-level risk factors and PIC occurrences, PIC-specific probabilities of occurrence are estimated through multivariate logistic regression models. Poisson Binomial cumulative mass function estimates identify deviations between observed and expected PIC counts across levels of patient-visit aggregation. Area under the curve (AUC) estimates are used to demonstrate PIC predictive performance in an 80:20 derivation-validation split framework. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: We used N=3,363,149 administrative hospitalizations between 2019 and 2021 from the Premier Healthcare Database. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: PIC-specific model predictive performance was strong across PICs and age strata. Average area under the curve estimates across PICs were 0.95 (95% CI: 0.93-0.96), 0.91 (95% CI: 0.90-0.93), and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.89-0.91) for the neonate and infant, pediatric, and adult strata, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed method provides a consistent quality metric that adjusts for the population's case mix. Age-specific risk stratification further addresses currently ignored heterogeneity in PIC prevalence across age groups. Finally, the proposed aggregation method identifies large PIC-specific deviations between observed and expected counts, flagging areas with a potential need for quality improvements.

Quantitation of cytomegalovirus DNA load in dried blood spots correlates well with plasma viral load.

An assay to accurately quantitate cytomegalovirus (CMV) load in finger-stick-collected dried blood spots (DBS) could potentially be useful for field studies or for analyzing patient self-collected specimens. We therefore assessed CMV DNA load in paired venipuncture-collected plasma samples and finger-stick DBS, using a previously validated quantitative PCR assay. Assay variability, sensitivity, and changes in viral load during antiviral therapy in finger-stick DBS were compared to the reference plasma quantitative PCR assay, using 106 prospectively collected pairs of finger-stick DBS and plasma samples from 35 solid-organ transplant (SOT) patients. The DBS assay showed good agreement with the reference plasma viral load assay on the log10 scale (Pearson correlation coefficient, 0.92; P < 0.001). The 95% limit of detection of the DBS assay was estimated at 2,700 plasma copies/ml (675 plasma IU/ml). In 94% (76/81) of paired DBS and plasma samples above the limit of detection, the difference in CMV load was <1 log10. CMV viral load changes during antiviral treatment were comparable in plasma and DBS. We conclude that finger-stick DBS provides a convenient sample type for quantitation of CMV load that correlates well with plasma levels. Future studies to optimize and evaluate this methodology for patient self-collected samples are warranted.

Efficiency and risk factors for CMV transmission in seronegative hematopoietic stem cell recipients.

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) transmission via stem cells or marrow in CMV donor seropositive/recipient seronegative (D+/R-) hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is surprisingly inefficient, and factors associated with transmission in these high-risk HCT recipients are unknown. In a retrospective cohort of D+/R- HCT recipients, cumulative incidence curve estimates were used to determine posttransplantation rates of CMV and multivariable Cox proportional models to assess risk factors associated with transmission. A total of 447 patients from 1995 to 2007 were eligible for enrollment. Overall, 85 of 447 (19.0%) acquired CMV at a median of 49 days (IQR 41-60) posttransplantation. CMV disease before day 100 occurred in 6 of 447 (1.3%) patients and in 7 of 447 (1.6%) after day 100. The donor graft, specifically the total nucleated cell count (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-4.7, P = .0002), was the only factor associated with CMV transmission in multivariable analyses. Notably, the source stem cells (marrow versus peripheral blood stem cell [PBSC]), screening method, and graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) were not associated with transmission. Thus, a highly cellular graft was the only identifiable risk factor associated with CMV transmission, suggesting that viral genomic content of the donor graft determines transmission efficiency in D+/R- HCT recipients.

Cytomegalovirus reactivation in critically ill immunocompetent patients.

CONTEXT: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is associated with adverse clinical outcomes in immunosuppressed persons, but the incidence and association of CMV reactivation with adverse outcomes in critically ill persons lacking evidence of immunosuppression have not been well defined. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association of CMV reactivation with intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital length of stay in critically ill immunocompetent persons. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We prospectively assessed CMV plasma DNAemia by thrice-weekly real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and clinical outcomes in a cohort of 120 CMV-seropositive, immunocompetent adults admitted to 1 of 6 ICUs at 2 separate hospitals at a large US tertiary care academic medical center between 2004 and 2006. Clinical measurements were assessed by personnel blinded to CMV PCR results. Risk factors for CMV reactivation and association with hospital and ICU length of stay were assessed by multivariable logistic regression and proportional odds models. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Association of CMV reactivation with prolonged hospital length of stay or death. RESULTS: The primary composite end point of continued hospitalization (n = 35) or death (n = 10) by 30 days occurred in 45 (35%) of the 120 patients. Cytomegalovirus viremia at any level occurred in 33% (39/120; 95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-41%) at a median of 12 days (range, 3-57 days) and CMV viremia greater than 1000 copies/mL occurred in 20% (24/120; 95% CI, 13%-28%) at a median of 26 days (range, 9-56 days). By logistic regression, CMV infection at any level (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 4.3; 95% CI, 1.6-11.9; P = .005) and at greater than 1000 copies/mL (adjusted OR, 13.9; 95% CI, 3.2-60; P < .001) and the average CMV area under the curve (AUC) in log(10) copies per milliliter (adjusted OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.3-3.2; P < .001) were independently associated with hospitalization or death by 30 days. In multivariable partial proportional odds models, both CMV 7-day moving average (OR, 5.1; 95% CI, 2.9-9.1; P < .001) and CMV AUC (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.1-4.7; P < .001) were independently associated with a hospital length of stay of at least 14 days. CONCLUSIONS: These preliminary findings suggest that reactivation of CMV occurs frequently in critically ill immunocompetent patients and is associated with prolonged hospitalization or death. A controlled trial of CMV prophylaxis in this setting is warranted.